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Green River Basin Water Plan
Technical Memoranda
SUBJECT: |
Green River Basin Plan
Population Projections |
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PREPARED BY: |
Gary Watts, Watts & Associates, Inc. |
Introduction
This memorandum presents population projections for the Green River Basin and its communities and
rural areas for the time period from 2000 through 2030. The projections provide a basis for estimating
municipal and domestic water needs in the Basin over the next 30 years. They also provide a basis for
assessing water-based recreational resource needs.
The river basin planning process developed by the Wyoming Water Development Commission (WWDC)
specifies that population projections be developed 30 years into the future for each river basin for each of
three planning scenarios:
- Low Growth
- Moderate Growth
- High Growth
The rationale and approach employed in developing population projections for the Green River Basin are
described below.
Rationale and Approach
Generally, there are three commonly accepted methods for producing population projections: 1) time
series analyses, 2) cohort survival analyses, and 3) employment-driven approaches. Each approach has
advantages and disadvantages that must be evaluated in specific planning applications. Some methods
combine more than one of the three approaches to produce projections.
Time series analyses typically involve assessing past growth trends and using those trends to project
population into the future. Analytical methods used with this approach include computing average annual
historical growth rates and fitting linear or non-linear equations to historical population data or indicators
of population growth such as school enrollments, sales tax revenues, or other variables. Projections are
usually based upon the assumption that future population changes will mimic past average annual growth
rates or trends. The time series approach is relatively easy to implement, and its results are easily
understandable. Its main disadvantage is that it does not explicitly consider the three primary
determinants of regional population change: mortality rates, fertility rates, and migration patterns.
Instead, the method implicitly assumes that past trends in relationships among these variables will
continue into the future.
The cohort survival approach explicitly recognizes the three primary determinants of population change
and requires forecasts of future mortality and fertility rates as well as net migration patterns. Projections
of mortality and fertility rates by age and sex group (cohort) are available from the U.S. Census Bureau
(USCB), as are projections of net migration patterns for different regions of the country. Projections of
change for each cohort can be combined to produce forecasts of future population for a given geographic
area. The advantage of the cohort survival approach is that it explicitly recognizes the determinants of
population change and takes them into account in developing projections. Its primary disadvantage is
that in rural areas with relatively small population bases, the effects of changing migration patterns over
time can overwhelm the effects of changes in mortality and fertility rates, thus making the projections
extremely sensitive to assumptions about future net migration patterns.
Employment-driven approaches to population projections are based upon the assumption that net
migration patterns are primarily determined by job availability, and that job availability can be projected
into the future with reasonable accuracy. Thus, if we could accurately project how many jobs would be
available in the Green River Basin in the year 2030, we could estimate population in that year based upon
estimates of how many people would be associated with each job. Estimates of the number of persons
associated with each job may or may not explicitly take into account such factors as labor force
participation rates, fertility rates, and mortality rates. If these factors are taken into account, the
employment-driven approach becomes a special case of the cohort survival approach where net migration
estimates are based upon employment forecasts.
The employment-driven approach incorporating labor force participation, fertility, and mortality rate
changes is the most sophisticated approach commonly used for projecting regional population changes
and can provide relatively accurate forecasts over relatively short time frames. Its primary disadvantage
lies in the difficulty of forecasting economic activity and associated labor requirements by economic
sector over long time periods. Even if future economic activity by sector could be forecast reliably 30
years into the future (a doubtful proposition), technological changes that affect the amount of labor
needed by each sector often cannot be forecast reliably. For example, Wyoming's Powder River Basin
has become the world's leading coal producer in recent decades with little growth in employment
opportunities because of productivity gains associated with mechanized mining equipment. Accurately
forecasting current levels of mining employment in the Powder River Basin 30 years ago would have
been very difficult because the technology that determines current employment levels did not exist then.
Another disadvantage of the employment-driven approach is that migration patterns in the United States
in recent decades have become less dependent upon local job availability and more dependent upon
amenities and lifestyle variables such as climate, local infrastructure, crime rates, and scenic attributes.
Many industries and jobs in the U.S. economy are now "portable" in the sense that they can be shifted
from one locale to another based upon amenities or lifestyle variables with little change in competitive
advantage.
Given the inherent shortcomings of all three population projection methodologies, there is no compelling
reason to generate population projections for the Green River Basin using one method to the exclusion of
others. Instead, the approach taken for this study involves using three different methods to create a range
of projections representative of low, moderate, and high growth scenarios.
One of the methods involves refining and extending population forecasts for Wyoming cities, towns, and
counties prepared by the Wyoming Department of Administration and Information (WDAI). The WDAI
methodology incorporates elements of all three approaches described above. The second method
involves refining and allocating to the Basin the population projections for the state of Wyoming prepared
by the USCB. These projections were developed using the cohort survival approach with net migration
pattern based upon address changes reported on federal tax returns. The third method involves a time
series analysis of past population trends in the Basin to estimate a likely maximum rate of future
population growth.
A primary objective of incorporating the state and federal projections into the analysis is to provide a
basis for comparability with population projections for other river basins in the state. To the extent that
the state and federal projections can be incorporated into the planning scenarios for other basins, there
will be a consistent, comparable set of assumptions for population projections from basin to basin.
Current Population Estimates
The first step in developing population projections for the Basin was to estimate its current population.
Estimates are necessary because the results of the 2000 census are not available as of the date of this
report. Furthermore, it would be useful to have a consistent data source for the current population of all
river basins in the state, and the results of the 2000 census may not be current when other basin plans are
developed.
The Division of Economic Analysis of the WDAI produces estimates of the population of Wyoming's
counties, cities, and towns on an annual basis, and projects those estimates 10 years into the future.
These estimates and forecasts are available from a WDAI web site (WDAI, 1999). The WDAI forecasts
for the year 2000 were used as current population estimates for this report and could be used to develop
comparable current population baselines in other basins.
Because the geographical boundaries of the Green River Basin do not adhere to county lines, it was
necessary to adjust the WADI county population estimates by to reflect only the proportion of each
county that lies within the Basin's boundaries. That adjustment process was as follows:
- Cities and towns were classified as within or without the Basin using maps, and their populations
were allocated accordingly.
- Each county's rural population was estimated by subtracting the populations of all cities and
towns from the county total.
- A proportion of the rural population of each county was allocated to the Basin based upon the
proportion of the land area in each county that is in the Basin.
- The proportion of each county's land area that is in the Basin was estimated from data contained
in Table I-4 of Water Planning Report No. 3 (Wyoming State Engineer's Office [WSEO], 1970)
and county acreage figures reported in the 1999 Wyoming Official Highway Map.
The only exceptions to this procedure involve Fremont and Teton Counties, each of which have a very
small portion of rural land in the Basin. In both cases, these lands are in remote, lightly populated areas.
As a result, a decision was made to exclude Fremont and Teton Counties from the Basin population
projections.
Based upon the methodology described above, the total current population of Wyoming's Green River
Basin is estimated to be 61,100 persons. This estimate represents an increase of 111 percent over the
1970 total of approximately 29,000 persons. Figure 1 shows these population totals along with a
population forecast for the year 2000 taken from Water Planning Report No. 3, the 1970 water planning
document for the Basin. That forecast is 48,100 persons, or 21 percent lower than the current estimate
for the Basin. The forecast from Water Planning Report No. 3 apparently did not anticipate the extent of
population growth that resulted from energy and mineral development in the basin during the 1970s and
early 1980s.
The geographical distribution of the Basin's current population by county is depicted in Figure 2. That
figure shows that almost two-thirds of the Basin's current population (64.7 percent) resides in
Sweetwater County. Lincoln, Sublette, and Uinta Counties each have between 8 and 13 percent of the
Basin's population, while Carbon County has only 1.5 percent. The relatively large population
concentration in Sweetwater County is attributable to the fact that it contains the two largest
communities in the Basin, Rock Springs and Green River. These two cities, with a combined population
of about 32,500, account for 53 percent of the Basin's current population.
Extended WDAI Population Projections
The Division of Economic Analysis of the WDAI produces population forecasts for Wyoming counties,
cities, and towns. The county population forecasts are based upon time series data from which growth
rates are derived from variables such as population, sales tax collections, and school enrollments. These
growth rates are used to forecast individual county population totals, and these county totals are adjusted
to make them consistent with state-level population forecasts that incorporate elements of the cohort
survival and employment-driven approaches. Population projections for cities and towns within each
county are based upon population "shares" as derived from census counts or estimates.
The state-level forecasts are employment-driven with respect to magnitude, although they explicitly take
into account fertility, mortality, and migration patterns by cohort. The state population forecast totals are
controlled to match employment projections produced by Wharton Econometric Forecast Associates
under contract with the Division of Economic Analysis. Thus, the total county-level projections are
essentially employment-driven also.
The Division of Economic Analysis forecasts population only 10 or fewer years into the future because of
the uncertainties associated with such projections. Its most recent projections are through the year 2008
and are relatively conservative, a reflection of the relatively slow economic growth that the Basin and
many other parts of the state have witnessed in recent years. A reasonable set of low growth rate
population projections for the Green River Basin can be derived by computing the WDAI's average
annual population growth rates for Green River Basin communities and rural areas for the period from
1990 through 2008 and extending those growth rates through the year 2030.
Allocation of U.S. Census Bureau Projections
The USCB periodically produces population forecasts for each of the 50 states using the cohort survival
approach. The most recent forecasts for the state of Wyoming are two sets of population projections
through the year 2025, the Series A forecasts and the Series B forecasts (USCB, 1999). Both series of
projections use the cohort-survival approach and incorporate the USCB's "middle series" projections of
fertility and mortality rates by cohort for each state. Both series also use migration patterns based upon
recent data (early 1990s) concerning address changes reported on federal income tax returns. The only
difference between the Series A and Series B projections is that the latter are adjusted slightly to make
them more consistent with employment projections by state issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
of the U.S. Department of Commerce. There is no significant difference between the Series A and Series
B population forecasts for the state of Wyoming.
Both series of projections indicate moderate future population growth for Wyoming based upon
migration patterns in the early 1990s. During that period, there was a moderate influx of new residents
into some parts of Wyoming from elsewhere in the country. The effects of this migration pattern are
apparent in parts of the Green River Basin, including the Pinedale area. The USCB projections are based
upon the assumption that this moderate rate of net in-migration will continue into the future, and that
fertility and mortality rates for the state will follow the USCB's middle series projections.
A reasonable set of moderate growth population projections for the Green River Basin can be developed
from the USCB's Series A projections for Wyoming using the following methodology:
- Use the WDAI population forecasts to estimate the percentage change in the Green River Basin's
population from 1990 to 2008, as well as the corresponding percentage changes for communities
and rural areas of each county.
- Use the WDAI population forecasts to compute a percentage change in Wyoming's population
from 1990 to 2008.
- Compute a relative growth rate (RGR) for each Green River Basin community or area relative to
the state as the ratio of the percentage changes described above.
- Use the annual growth rates for Wyoming's population derived from the USCB's Series A
projections multiplied by the RGRs described above for each community and rural area to derive
estimated annual population growth rates in the Basin for the post-2008 period.
Historical Growth Projections
A third set of Green River Basin population projections was created by assuming that the area would
experience a total population increase during the period from 2000 to 2030 that is of the same magnitude
that occurred during the 30-year period form 1960 to 1990. From 1960 to 1990, the population of the
Basin grew from 29,000 to 58,100, an increase of 29,100 persons. That increase came about largely in
the 1970s and early 1980s as a result of rapid development of energy and mineral resources in the Basin,
and the associated influx of workers. If a similar increase in energy and mineral development were to
occur again in the next 30 years, it is possible that Basin population could increase by another 29,000 to
30,000 persons, resulting in a Basinwide population of approximately 90,000 persons by the year 2030.
Although the possibility of the Basin experiencing a return to the boom conditions of the 1970s seems
remote under present circumstances, the assumption that it might happen is a reasonable basis for a high
growth scenario for population forecasting.
Earlier in this study, a set of high growth projections was developed based upon the assumption that
communities and rural areas in the Basin would experience growth rates of a similar magnitude to those
that occurred form 1960 to 1990. Those historical growth rates, however, were from an era when the
base populations of most Basin communities were quite small. As a result, the energy and minerals boom
of the period created percentage growth rates that were very high. Given the larger population base in
the Basin today, it is unlikely that historical growth rates will be repeated again, even if a major boom
period were to resume. A more reasonable assumption about future high growth involves a fixed
population influx assumption similar to the one described in the previous paragraph.
Low, Moderate, and High Growth Projections
The three methods described above were used to generate population forecasts through the year 2030 for
each community and rural area in the Basin. Generally, the WDAI extended forecasts resulted in the
smallest forecast for each community and rural area. The allocated USCB forecasts were generally
middle of the road, and the historical growth projections generally produced the largest forecasts. There
were some exceptions to these generalities, however. For example, Sublette County's population did not
grow much during the period from 1960 to 1990 relative to other parts of the Basin. As a result, the
historical growth scenario did not correspond to a reasonable high growth scenario for communities in
Sublette County. On the other hand, the extended WDAI forecasts showed significantly faster population
growth in Sublette County through the year 2030 than in other parts of the Basin.
To adjust for these anomalies, the high growth scenario for each community and rural area in the Basin
was defined as the largest population forecast for 2030 produced by any of the three methods. Similarly,
the low growth scenario was defined as the lowest 2030 population forecast, and the moderate growth
scenario was defined as the middle 2030 population forecast.
The results of the low, moderate, and high growth projections for the entire Basin are depicted
graphically in Figure 3. That figure shows that the low growth scenario projects a very small Basinwide
population increase over the next 30 years. For this scenario, the current Basinwide population of 61,100
is projected to increase to only 62,500 by the year 2030. This projection is consistent with assuming that
the relatively stagnant patterns of population change in most parts of the Basin in recent years will
continue throughout the planning horizon.
The moderate growth scenario indicates that Basinwide population will increase to a total of 75,000
persons by the year 2030, an increase of about 14,000 over current levels. This projection is consistent
with the USCB's forecast that future net migration patterns will be positive for Wyoming and the Green
River Basin.
The high growth scenario results show the Basin's population increasing from 61,100 to 91,400 over the
next 30 years. This result was predetermined by the assumption that a population influx would occur of a
magnitude similar to that experienced during the period from 1960 through 1990.
Low, moderate, and high growth projections for communities and rural areas of the Basin are given in
Tables 1 through 3. The results in Table 1 indicate that under low growth assumptions, communities and
rural areas in Carbon and Sweetwater Counties will experience small population decreases over the next
30 years, while there will be modest growth in other parts of the Basin. The moderate growth projections
in Table 2 indicate that most parts of the Basin will experience population growth in the range of 20 to 35
percent over the next 30 years, with the exception of the two small communities and the rural portion of
Carbon County. The high growth projections (Table 3) indicate that all parts of the Basin will experience
at least a 20 percent population increase by 2030, with some areas growing by as much as 70 percent.
Table 1 - Green River Basin Population Projections Low Growth Scenario |
County/Community | Population |
Percentage Increase |
2000 | 2030 |
Carbon Cty | 923 | 790 | -14.3% |
Baggs | 249 | 224 |
-9.9% |
Dixon | 66 | 28 |
-57.6% |
Rural | 608 | 538 |
-11.5% |
|
Lincoln Cty | 7,604 | 8,930 | 17.4% |
Diamondville | 894 | 1,048 |
17.2% |
Kemmerer | 2,979 | 3,551 |
19.2% |
LaBarge | 503 | 591 |
17.5% |
Opal | 95 | 111 |
16.8% |
Rural | 3,133 | 3,630 |
15.9% |
|
Sublette Cty | 5,457 | 6,448 | 18.2% |
Big Piney | 508 | 604 |
18.9% |
Marbleton | 729 | 867 |
18.9% |
Pinedale | 1,353 | 1,567 |
15.8% |
Rural | 2,867 | 3,410 |
18.9% |
|
Sweetwater Cty | 39,540 | 38,283 |
-3.2% |
Bairoil | 224 | 224 |
0.2% |
Granger | 125 | 92 |
-26.5% |
Green River | 13,035 | 12,692 |
-2.6% |
Rock Springs | 19,380 | 18,912 |
-2.4% |
Superior | 265 | 268 |
1.0% |
Wamsutter | 242 | 229 |
-5.3% |
Rural | 6,269 | 5,866 |
-6.4% |
|
Uinta Cty | 7,556 | 8,013 |
6.0% |
Lyman | 2,109 | 2,202 |
4.4% |
Mtn. View | 1,376 | 1,437 |
4.4% |
Rural | 4,071 | 4,374 |
7.4% |
|
TOTAL BASIN | 61,079 | 62,465 |
2.3% |
Table 2 - Green River Basin Population Projections Moderate Growth Scenario |
County/Community | Population |
Percentage Increase |
2000 | 2030 |
Carbon Cty | 923 | 946 | 2.6% |
Baggs | 249 | 293 |
17.8% |
Dixon | 66 | 56 |
-15.1% |
Rural | 608 | 597 |
-1.8% |
|
Lincoln Cty | 7,604 | 9,519 | 25.2% |
Diamondville | 894 | 1,149 |
28.5% |
Kemmerer | 2,979 | 3,831 |
28.6% |
LaBarge | 503 | 646 |
28.5% |
Opal | 95 | 122 |
28.0% |
Rural | 3,133 | 3,771 |
20.4% |
|
Sublette Cty | 5,457 | 7,349 | 34.7% |
Big Piney | 508 | 696 |
36.9% |
Marbleton | 729 | 994 |
36.3% |
Pinedale | 1,353 | 1,845 |
36.4% |
Rural | 2,867 | 3,814 |
33.0% |
|
Sweetwater Cty | 39,540 | 47,574 |
20.3% |
Bairoil | 224 | 251 |
12.1% |
Granger | 125 | 122 |
-2.5% |
Green River | 13,035 | 15,716 |
20.6% |
Rock Springs | 19,380 | 23,368 |
20.6% |
Superior | 265 | 297 |
20.1% |
Wamsutter | 242 | 291 |
20.1% |
Rural | 6,269 | 7,530 |
20.1% |
|
Uinta Cty | 7,556 | 9,542 |
26.3% |
Lyman | 2,109 | 2,668 |
26.5% |
Mtn. View | 1,376 | 1,733 |
25.9% |
Rural | 4,071 | 5,141 |
26.3% |
|
TOTAL BASIN | 61,079 | 74,930 |
22.7% |
Table 3 - Green River Basin Population Projections High Growth Scenario |
County/Community | Population |
Percentage Increase |
2000 | 2030 |
Carbon Cty | 923 | 1,113 | 20.6% |
Baggs | 249 | 322 |
29.3% |
Dixon | 66 | 77 |
16.6% |
Rural | 608 | 714 |
17.5% |
|
Lincoln Cty | 7,604 | 10,377 | 36.5% |
Diamondville | 894 | 1,361 |
52.2% |
Kemmerer | 2,979 | 3,968 |
33.2% |
LaBarge | 503 | 895 |
78.0% |
Opal | 95 | 135 |
42.2% |
Rural | 3,133 | 4,018 |
28.3% |
|
Sublette Cty | 5,457 | 7,649 | 40.2% |
Big Piney | 508 | 763 |
50.3% |
Marbleton | 729 | 1,041 |
42.8% |
Pinedale | 1,353 | 1,967 |
45.4% |
Rural | 2,867 | 3,878 |
35.3% |
|
Sweetwater Cty | 39,540 | 60,309 |
52.5% |
Bairoil | 224 | 270 |
20.6% |
Granger | 125 | 151 |
20.4% |
Green River | 13,035 | 22,261 |
70.8% |
Rock Springs | 19,380 | 28,049 |
44.7% |
Superior | 265 | 320 |
20.9% |
Wamsutter | 242 | 372 |
53.6% |
Rural | 6,269 | 8,887 |
41.8% |
|
Uinta Cty | 7,556 | 11,932 |
57.9% |
Lyman | 2,109 | 3,581 |
69.8% |
Mtn. View | 1,376 | 2,336 |
69.8% |
Rural | 4,071 | 6,016 |
47.8% |
|
TOTAL BASIN | 61,079 | 91,381 |
49.6% |
Conclusions
The results described above are not intended to be predictions of population growth but rather scenarios
for gauging the adequacy of current municipal and domestic water supplies and facilities in the Basin.
They also provide benchmarks for gauging future demand for water-based recreation opportunities. To
the extent that current water supplies and facilities are adequate to meet needs based upon the low to
moderate growth scenarios, there will be little need for future development unless the area economy
returns to "boom" conditions reminiscent of the 1970s. To the extent that current water supplies and
facilities are inadequate to meet needs based upon the low and moderate growth scenarios, development
plans can be formulated to address those needs.
References
U.S. Census Bureau, 1999, "Populations Projections: States, 1995 - 2025," Available World Wide Web
@
http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/stproj.html .
Wyoming Department of Administration and Information, 1999, "Wyoming Population Estimates and
Forecasts for Counties, Cities, and Towns," Division of Economic Analysis. Available Worldwide Web
@ http://eadiv.state.wy.us/pop/wyc&sc98.htm [new link 10/2009 HERE].
Wyoming State Engineer's Office, 1970, "Wyoming Water Planning Report No. 3: Water and Related
Land Resources of the Green River Basin, Wyoming," Wyoming Water Planning Program.
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