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Bear River Basin Water Plan
Technical Memoranda
| SUBJECT: |
Appendix Q
Future Water Demand Projections |
|
| PREPARED BY: |
Edward Harvey and Doug Jeavons, BBC Consulting |
|
| DATE: |
October 6, 2000 |
Introduction
This memorandum describes future water demand projections for the Bear River Basin (Basin)
under three alternative scenarios. It describes the study team’s water use projections for the Basin
in three separate sections:
- estimation of existing water use relationships (or water use factors) for each of
the economic and demographic measures provided in the second memorandum;
- water use projections for each of the four key water use sectors – agricultural,
municipal, rural domestic, and industrial – under three scenarios, presented on an
annual basis; and
- water use projections for each of these key water use sectors presented on an
monthly basis.
The bulk of this memo is based upon BBC estimates and projections. Other information was
gathered from publicly available secondary sources and from personal and telephone interviews
conducted by BBC Research and Consulting (BBC) from May through August 2000. References
are listed at the end of this memorandum.
This memorandum is the third in a series of four technical memoranda related to water demands
as authored by the study team for the Wyoming Water Development Commission. An overview
of the current conditions in key economic and water use sectors was provided in Memo 1. The
water demand projections presented here are based on the economic and demographic projections
outlined in Memo 2. The last memo addresses recreational water requirements.
Existing Water Use Relationships to Economic and Demographic Measures
This section of the memorandum describes the development of the estimated water use
relationships for each of the four key water use sectors – agricultural, municipal, rural domestic
and industrial – within the Basin. Wherever possible, separate water use factors were calculated
for surface water and ground water. Separate estimates of total diversions and consumptive use
were also calculated for each sector. After a detailed description of the methodology used to
develop the water use factor in each sector, the section concludes by presenting a table of all the
calculated water use factors.
Agricultural Sector
The agricultural sector consists of two primary areas of water use: irrigated hay production and
livestock sustenance. The vast majority of irrigation water in the Basin comes from surface water
diversions. It is assumed that all water used for livestock sustenance comes from surface water.
Irrigation water use factors, measured in acre-feet per acre, were calculated from historic water
use data for the Upper and Central divisions of the Basin. Information on irrigation consumptive
use for both surface water and ground water on a monthly basis from 1971 through 1998 was
collected by the study team (Wilson). Because interviewees consistently indicated that 1)
essentially all irrigable land is irrigated in a normal year, and 2) irrigated acreage within the Basin
has not changed recently, the study team assumed a constant irrigated acreage level for each
division within the Basin over the 30 year historical time period for which data was available
(Burrough, Grandy, Grasmick). The mean and maximum consumptive use over this historical
time period were calculated to represent irrigation water use in a “normal” and “high” year. As
Table 1 shows below, irrigation consumptive use in a normal year is about 1.45 acre-feet per acre
in the Basin. Of this, 1.42 acre-feet per acre or about 98 percent comes from surface water
diversions with the remainder coming from ground water pumping.
Unfortunately, analogous records of total surface water diverted and total ground water pumped
for irrigation were unavailable in aggregate form. Diversion estimates thus had to be constructed
by inflating annual consumptive use totals using estimated application and conveyance
efficiencies. Pumping estimates were calculated using only application efficiencies.
Estimated application efficiency depends on the relative share of acreage using a gravity or
sprinkler irrigation system. Weighted average application efficiency estimates were calculated to
be 55 percent in the Upper Division and 64 percent in the Central Division. Conveyance
efficiency was estimated to be between 40 and 65 percent for the Upper Division and between 45
and 65 percent for the Central Division (Wilson). The midpoint of these ranges (52.5 and 55
percent respectively) was chosen as a point estimate of conveyance efficiency for each District.
Resulting annual diversion estimates were converted to an acre-foot per acre basis using the
estimated irrigated acreage totals. As with consumptive use, the mean and maximum water
diverted over this historical time period were calculated to represent water use in a “normal” and
“high demand” year. In a normal year, ranchers divert approximately 4.52 acre-feet per acre of
irrigation water, of which 4.47 acre-feet per acre is surface water and the remainder is ground
water.
Livestock water use factors in the Basin are estimated on a per animal unit basis. Previous
estimates have placed daily water requirements at 12 gallons per head for cattle and 2 gallons per
head for sheep. (EPA Manual of Individual and Non-Public Water Supply Systems, May 1991)
The Kemmerer field office of the Bureau of Land Management estimates a daily requirement of
17.5 gallons for each cow-calf pair (Rawson). Since a cow-calf pair is the most common
definition of an animal unit, it is appropriately converted to yield a livestock water use factor of
.02 acre-feet per animal unit per year.
Municipal Sector
Municipal water use in the Basin is comprised of total water use in two municipalities: the City
of Evanston and the town of Cokeville. Water use in Evanston is divided into three distinct
sectors – residential, commercial and institutional. All Evanston water supplies come from
surface water diversions. Water use in Cokeville was analyzed in simplified form on a gallon per
capita basis due to very limited information on end-user usage. The Cokeville system is non-
metered. The total Cokeville water supply comes from three ground water wells just east of town
(Kemp, August, 2000).
Information on metered water use in Evanston is available from 1960 to 1999. In order to
estimate current diversion and consumptive use factors, the study team obtained water meter
totals for all service categories for the recent 6-year period of 1993 through 1998 (Department of
Public Works, City of Evanston). Meter totals are estimated to be 60 percent of total diversions
equivalent to in-flows at the water treatment plant throughout the system (Sunrise report).
Consumptive use for each sector may then be estimated by subtracting effluent totals from
diversion totals in each sector. Diversions and effluents are assumed to have the same
distribution among sectors.
Residential water use in Evanston consists of the sum of four distinct service categories: single
unit residential, multi unit residential, senior residential and mobile homes. Total residential
diversions and consumptive use were divided by corresponding population totals for the city in
each of the six years in order to obtain two sets of daily residential water use factors (gallons per
capita). The mean and maximum of these factors over this six-year period were calculated to
represent current residential water use in a “normal” and “high demand” year. As Table 1 shows
below, current diversions in the Evanston residential sector ranges from 158 gallons per capita in
a normal year to 173 gallons per capita in a high demand year. Current consumptive use for
residents of the city of Evanston is estimated to range from 95 gallons per capita in a normal year
to 110 gallons per capita in a high year.
Current commercial diversion and consumptive use factors for Evanston during “normal” and
“high” years were calculated in a similar fashion. The primary difference is that daily
commercial water use factors are expressed in terms of gallons per employee. Employment totals
for Evanston during the 1993-98 period were backcasted from 1999 totals assuming that
employment levels during this period changed in direct proportion to population totals. As Table
1 shows below, current diversions in the Evanston commercial sector range from 70 gallons per
employee in a normal year to 78 gallons per employee in a high year. Current commercial
consumptive use for the city of Evanston is estimated to range from 43 gallons per employee in a
normal year to 50 gallons per employee in a high year.
Current institutional diversion and consumptive use factors for Evanston were calculated in much
the same way. Institutional water use in Evanston consists of the sum of three distinct service
categories: government, churches and medical facilities. Daily institutional water use is also
expressed in terms of gallons per capita. As Table 1 shows below, current diversions in the
Evanston institutional sector range from 80 gallons per capita in a normal year to 105 gallons per
capita in a high year. Current institutional consumptive use for the city of Evanston is estimated
to range from 50 gallons per capita in a normal year to 75 gallons per capita in a high year.
The remaining municipal category is residential water use in the town of Cokeville. Water use in
Cokeville is unmetered, and indeed little information on water use in the town exists. The study
team has estimated that system wide diversions for the town of Cokeville total about 596 acre-
feet per year (Forsgren Associates/Kemp), which translates to approximately 1,070 gallons per
capita per day assuming Cokeville has approximately 500 residents (Kemp, August, 2000). This
amount was assumed to remain constant from 1993 to 1998. Assuming that a meter system is in
place, however, diversions are expected to drop to about 800 gallons per capita per day by the
year 2030 (Kemp).
As with Evanston, consumptive use for the Cokeville system was calculated by subtracting total
annual effluent from total annual diversions. The constant estimated diversion factors were
converted to total annual diversions by multiplying the number of Cokeville residents.
Population estimates were obtained by backcasting over the 6-year period assuming that
Cokeville population varied proportionately with Lincoln County totals. Total annual effluent for
the system, measured at about 145 acre-feet, or about 47.25 million gallons, was subtracted from
annual diversion totals. Resulting consumptive use estimates were divided by annual population
totals to obtain annual consumptive use factors (gallon per capita per day). The maximum and
mean of the resulting annual consumptive use factor estimates were calculated to represent
consumptive use in a “normal” and “high demand” year. Table 1 shows that daily consumptive
use in Cokeville is estimated to range from 827 gallons per capita in a normal year to 830 gallons
per capita in a high year.
Rural Domestic Sector
Outside of Evanston and Cokeville, the remaining residential water use in the Basin consists of
domestic use on the individual ranches scattered throughout the Basin. The majority of these
ranches pump their water from individual wells located on their property. Very little information
exists on water use in this unmetered sector. The study team thus chose a general water use proxy
of 180 gallons per capita per day for this sector, as this figure is slightly higher than the maximum
purely residential water use in Evanston. In addition, 100 percent consumptive use is assumed
for the rural domestic sector.
Industrial Sector
The primary source of industrial water use in the Basin is dedicated to natural gas processing.
Both British Petroleum/Amoco and Chevron use significant amounts of water in natural gas
processing at the Whitney Canyon natural gas field. All the water used by BP Amoco is pumped
from a series of wells. Company representatives estimated average water use to be around 2.3
million gallons per month with a high of 4.1 million gallons per month, which translates to an
average of 88 acre-feet per year and a high of 151 acre-feet per year (Robinson).
In contrast, all the water used by the Chevron processing plant is diverted surface water. Chevron
representatives estimated their usage to range from an average 8.5 million gallons per month to a
high of 12 million gallons per month, which translates to an average of 313 acre-feet per year and
a high of 432 acre-feet per year (DeBerry).
These totals were then converted to industrial water use factors (measured in acre-feet per billion
cubic feet of natural gas production) by dividing through by 1999 natural gas production totals for
Lincoln and Uinta counties. The resulting annual water use factors of 1.39 and 2.06 acre-feet per
billion cubic feet of production for average and high years respectively are also displayed in
Exhibit 1 below. Note that 100 percent consumptive use is assumed for industrial water use
(DeBerry, Robinson).
Exhibit 1.
Water Demand Factors by Economic Sector,
Annual Diversions and Annual Consumptive Use
|
Diversions |
Consumptive Use |
| Demand by Type of Use |
Units |
Average
Supply/Demand |
High
Supply/Demand |
Average
Supply/Demand |
High
Supply/Demand |
|
| Agriculture |
|
|
|
|
|
| Irrigation |
Acre feet per acre |
4.52 |
- |
1.45 |
2.01 |
| Surface Water |
|
4.47 |
6.26 |
1.42 |
1.98 |
| Ground Water |
|
0.05 |
0.17 |
0.03 |
0.11 |
| Livestock |
Acre feet per animal unit |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
| Municipal |
|
|
|
|
|
| Evanston |
|
|
|
|
|
| Residential |
Gallons/capita per day |
157.68 |
172.72 |
95.38 |
110.89 |
| Commercial |
Gallons/employee per day |
70.59 |
77.97 |
42.80 |
50.35 |
| Institutional |
Gallons/capita per day |
80.63 |
104.71 |
49.47 |
73.74 |
| Cokeville |
Gallons/capita per day |
1070.00 |
1070.00 |
827.08 |
830.79 |
| Rural Domestic |
Gallons/capita per day |
180.00 |
180.00 |
180.00 |
180.00 |
| Industrial |
|
|
|
|
|
| Natural Gas |
Acre feet per Bcf or production |
1.39 |
2.06 |
1.39 |
2.06 |
| Whitney(Chevron) |
|
1.09 |
1.54 |
1.09 |
1.54 |
| Whitney(BP-Amoco) |
|
0.30 |
0.53 |
0.30 |
0.53 |
|
Projected Annual Water Demands by Scenario
This section presents current and projected annual water demands (both diversions and
consumptive use) for the Basin under each of three separate scenarios: high, medium and low
water use. The assumptions underlying each scenario have been previously described in Memo 2
of Task 4, Water Demand Projections. Water demands are derived by multiplying current or
projected demographic or economic activity by the water use factors presented in the first section
of this memo. Total water diversions and consumptive use are presented and discussed for each
sector through three pairs of tables, one pair for each scenario. Patterns of change from current to
projected future use by sector do not vary much from diversions to consumptive use within each
scenario. At the bottom of each exhibit, these totals are aggregated into surface water and ground
water totals for the Basin. `
High Scenario
Total Basin water diversion requirements are projected to increase by about seven percent from
year 2000 to year 2035 under the high case scenario. Under normal water year conditions, this
amounts to about 21,400 acre-feet; under high demand year conditions, the increase would be
about 29,000 acre-feet. The big difference is between “normal” and “high demand” or dry year
conditions – about 40 percent more demand in the dry year.
Under the high scenario, total agricultural water demand grows slightly over the projection
period, whether measured in terms of diversions or consumptive use. Despite a lack of growth in
the sector, agriculture continues to comprise the vast majority of total water demand under the
high scenario; agriculture is responsible for 97 percent of total water diverted and 94 percent of
total consumptive use in the year 2030. Consumptive use is only 32 percent of total diversions
for irrigated hay production within the Basin, reflecting low efficiencies and reuse of return
flows. The vast majority of agricultural water demand remains in irrigated hay production, with
only 0.19 percent going to direct livestock sustenance.
Exhibit 2.
Current and Projected Annual Bear River Water Demand
High Case Scenario,
Annual Diversions in Acre Feet per Year
|
Current Demands |
20303 High Scenario Demands |
|
Normal
Demand Year |
High
Demand Year |
Normal
Demand Year |
High
Demand Year |
|
| Demand by Type of Use |
| Agriculture |
|
|
|
|
| Irrigation |
294,668 |
419,185 |
311,577 |
443,239 |
| Livestock |
528 |
528 |
611 |
611 |
| Agricultural Subdtotal |
295,196 |
419,713 |
312,188 |
443,850 |
| Municipal |
|
|
|
|
| Evanston |
|
|
|
|
| Residential |
2,087 |
2,286 |
4,228 |
4,631 |
| Commercial |
638 |
705 |
1,310 |
1,447 |
| Institutional |
1,067 |
1,386 |
2,162 |
2,807 |
| Subtotal |
3,792 |
4,377 |
7,700 |
8,886 |
| Cokeville |
653 |
653 |
664 |
664 |
| Municipal Subtotal |
4,446 |
5,030 |
8,364 |
9,550 |
| Rural Domestic |
500 |
500 |
959 |
959 |
| Industrial |
459 |
680 |
494 |
731 |
| Total Demand |
300,601 |
425,923 |
322,005 |
455,091 |
| Demand by Source of Supply |
|
|
|
|
| Surface Water |
293,454 |
416,212 |
314,042 |
444,416 |
| Ground Water |
7,147 |
9,710 |
7,963 |
10,675 |
| Total Demand |
300,601 |
425,923 |
322,005 |
455,091 |
|
Under the high scenario, while municipal water demand almost doubles over the 30-year
projection period, it remains a relatively small sector, accounting for only 2.6 percent of total
water diversions, and 4.8 percent of total consumptive use within the Basin. While water demand
is projected to more than double in all municipal sectors in Evanston, water demand in Cokeville
remains almost constant over the projection period. This is because the projected population
growth of Cokeville is offset by the assumption that per capita water demand will decline sharply
due to the implementation of a meter system in the town during the projection period.
Exhibit 3.
Current and Projected Annual Bear River Water Demand
High Case Scenario,
Annual Consumptive Use in Acre Feet per Year
|
Current Demands |
20303 High Scenario Demands |
|
Normal
Demand Year |
High
Demand Year |
Normal
Demand Year |
High
Demand Year |
|
| Demand by Type of Use |
| Agriculture |
|
|
|
|
| Irrigation |
94,528 |
136,251 |
99,953 |
144,070 |
| Livestock |
528 |
528 |
611 |
611 |
| Agricultural Subdtotal |
95,056 |
136,779 |
100,564 |
144,681 |
| Municipal |
|
|
|
|
| Evanston |
|
|
|
|
| Residential |
1,262 |
1,468 |
2,557 |
2,973 |
| Commercial |
387 |
455 |
794 |
935 |
| Institutional |
655 |
976 |
1,326 |
1,977 |
| Subtotal |
2,304 |
2,899 |
4,678 |
5,885 |
| Cokeville |
505 |
507 |
513 |
516 |
| Municipal Subtotal |
2,809 |
3,406 |
5,192 |
6,400 |
| Rural Domestic |
500 |
500 |
959 |
959 |
| Industrial |
459 |
680 |
494 |
731 |
| Total Demand |
98,825 |
141,365 |
107,209 |
152,772 |
| Demand by Source of Supply |
|
|
|
|
| Surface Water |
95,829 |
137,460 |
103,629 |
148,229 |
| Ground Water |
2,996 |
3,906 |
3,580 |
4,543 |
| Total Demand |
98,825 |
141,365 |
107,209 |
152,772 |
|
Rural domestic water demand is projected to almost double over the next 30 years, due in large
part to the projected population growth around the Evanston area. Although this sector is much
more prevalent in Lincoln than in Uinta County (42 percent to 15 percent of total county
population), the dramatic growth projected for the Evanston area drives the growth of the
municipal sector within the Basin.
Water demand within the industrial sector is not likely to change substantially over the projection
period under the high scenario. This reflects the 15 percent projected increase in natural gas
production over the projection period. Industrial diversions and industrial consumptive use are
likely to continue to be minor considerations within the Basin.
Low Scenario
Total water diversion requirements under the low economic forecasting scenario are projected to
about the same in 2030 as they were in 2000. However, in any given year from 2000 to 2030,
there might be the need for 125,000 more acre-feet in a high demand, dry year compared with a
normal year.
Under the low scenario, total water demand in the agricultural sector declines over the projection
period due to the anticipated agricultural policy changes described in the second memorandum of
Task 4, Water Demand Projections. Since both irrigation diversions and consumptive use are
projected to decline by 6 percent over the projection period, overall agricultural demand declines
correspondingly. The decline in livestock water demand directly reflects the impacts of a change
in BLM grazing policy and the implementation of the Cokeville Meadows Wildlife Refuge.
Exhibit 4.
Current and Projected Annual Bear River Water Demand
Low Case Scenario,
Annual Diversions in Acre Feet per Year
|
Current Demands |
20303 Low Scenario Demands |
|
Normal
Demand Year |
High
Demand Year |
Normal
Demand Year |
High
Demand Year |
|
| Demand by Type of Use |
| Agriculture |
|
|
|
|
| Irrigation |
294,668 |
419,185 |
277,139 |
394,249 |
| Livestock |
528 |
528 |
487 |
487 |
| Agricultural Subdtotal |
295,196 |
419,713 |
277,627 |
394,736 |
| Environmental |
|
|
|
|
| Wetland Impoundments |
0 |
0 |
15,305 |
21,434 |
| Municipal |
|
|
|
|
| Evanston |
|
|
|
|
| Residential |
2,087 |
2,286 |
2,126 |
2,329 |
| Commercial |
638 |
705 |
659 |
728 |
| Institutional |
1,067 |
1,386 |
1,087 |
1,412 |
| Subtotal |
3,792 |
4,377 |
3,872 |
4,468 |
| Cokeville |
653 |
653 |
471 |
471 |
| Municipal Subtotal |
4,446 |
5,030 |
4,342 |
4,938 |
| Rural Domestic |
500 |
500 |
504 |
504 |
| Industrial |
459 |
680 |
0 |
0 |
| Total Demand |
300,601 |
425,923 |
297,779 |
421,614 |
| Demand by Source of Supply |
|
|
|
|
| Surface Water |
293,454 |
416,212 |
291,261 |
412,753 |
| Ground Water |
7,147 |
9,710 |
6,518 |
8,860 |
| Total Demand |
300,601 |
425,923 |
297,779 |
421,614 |
|
The environmental sector line item included in the low scenario specifically refers to the wetland
water requirements within the Cokeville Meadows Wildlife Refuge. If the refuge is fully
implemented, water impoundments will likely be made in order to augment existing waterfowl
habitat area. Both diversion and consumptive use totals were estimated by taking the projected
acreage devoted to refuge impoundments, and multiplying this total by the corresponding water
use factors calculated for surface water irrigation. The diversion factor was chosen, as it
represents the lost opportunity for usage of the water – the amount of water that would have been
used had the impoundments not been created. Estimates of actual consumptive use for wetlands
in the region were not readily available. The water use factor for irrigated hay in the Basin was
chosen to derive this estimate because irrigated meadow is a close approximation of waterfowl
impoundments in this region.
In the municipal sector, the modest decline in both diversions and consumptive use is the direct
result of two factors: constant population levels and the anticipated implementation of a
residential water metering system in Cokeville (Kemp). Essentially zero population growth is
projected for the Basin under the low scenario. Water demand in the rural domestic sector,
completely a function of projected population, also remains unchanged.
Exhibit 5.
Current and Projected Annual Bear River Water Demand
Low Case Scenario,
Annual Consumptive Use in Acre Feet per Year
|
Current Demands |
20303 Low Scenario Demands |
|
Normal
Demand Year |
High
Demand Year |
Normal
Demand Year |
High
Demand Year |
|
| Demand by Type of Use |
| Agriculture |
|
|
|
|
| Irrigation |
94,528 |
136,251 |
88,905 |
128,146 |
| Livestock |
528 |
528 |
487 |
487 |
| Agricultural Subdtotal |
95,056 |
136,779 |
89,393 |
128,634 |
| Environmental |
|
|
|
|
| Wetland Impoundments |
0 |
0 |
4,862 |
6,780 |
| Municipal |
|
|
|
|
| Evanston |
|
|
|
|
| Residential |
1,262 |
1,468 |
1,286 |
1,495 |
| Commercial |
387 |
455 |
399 |
470 |
| Institutional |
655 |
976 |
667 |
994 |
| Subtotal |
2,304 |
2,899 |
2,352 |
2,959 |
| Cokeville |
505 |
507 |
364 |
365 |
| Municipal Subtotal |
2,809 |
3,406 |
2,716 |
3,324 |
| Rural Domestic |
500 |
500 |
504 |
504 |
| Industrial |
459 |
680 |
0 |
0 |
| Total Demand |
98,825 |
141,365 |
97,475 |
139,242 |
| Demand by Source of Supply |
|
|
|
|
| Surface Water |
95,829 |
137,460 |
94,829 |
135,809 |
| Ground Water |
2,996 |
3,906 |
2,646 |
3,433 |
| Total Demand |
98,825 |
141,365 |
97,475 |
139,242 |
|
The most significant change under the low scenario was the complete elimination of any
industrial water demand within the Basin. This result is reflective of the assumed extraction of all
remaining recoverable natural gas reserves within the Basin during the 30-year projection period.
Although the overall effect on water demand within the Basin is slightly due to the comparatively
small amount of industrial water use, this represents the largest projected change in any one
sector under the low scenario.
As with the other scenarios, changes in overall water demand over the 30-year time horizon are
relatively small because of the continued domination of the agricultural sector. Total surface
water diversions and consumptive use are projected to decline by roughly six percent while
corresponding ground water measures are expected to decline by 13 percent. The larger
percentage decline in ground water demand is the result of the complete elimination of the
industrial water use sector under the low scenario.
Medium Scenario
The medium economic projection scenario is structurally different from the high and low
scenarios. Instead of the economic base, “bottom-up” forecasting approach used in the other
scenarios, the medium scenario employs a population base “top-down” forecasting methodology.
This approach ultimately resulted in a projected level of population growth between the two
economic base scenarios. Accordingly, projected water demands for each sector presented in
Exhibits 6 and 7 were interpolated between the corresponding totals under the high and low
scenarios. The results illustrate a scenario where water diversions and consumptive use remain
almost constant over the course of the 30-year projections period.
Exhibit 6.
Current and Projected Annual Bear River Water Demand
Mid Case Scenario,
Annual Diversions in Acre Feet per Year
|
Current Demands |
20303 Middle Scenario Demands |
|
Normal
Demand Year |
High
Demand Year |
Normal
Demand Year |
High
Demand Year |
|
| Demand by Type of Use |
| Agriculture |
|
|
|
|
| Irrigation |
294,668 |
419,185 |
292,636 |
416,295 |
| Livestock |
528 |
528 |
543 |
543 |
| Agricultural Subdtotal |
295,196 |
419,713 |
293,179 |
416,838 |
| Municipal |
|
|
|
|
| Evanston |
|
|
|
|
| Residential |
2,087 |
2,286 |
3,072 |
3,365 |
| Commercial |
638 |
705 |
952 |
1,051 |
| Institutional |
1,067 |
1,386 |
1,571 |
2,040 |
| Subtotal |
3,792 |
4,377 |
5,594 |
6,456 |
| Cokeville |
653 |
653 |
558 |
558 |
| Municipal Subtotal |
4,446 |
5,030 |
6,152 |
7,014 |
| Rural Domestic |
500 |
500 |
709 |
709 |
| Industrial |
459 |
680 |
222 |
329 |
| Total Demand |
300,601 |
425,923 |
300,263 |
424,889 |
| Demand by Source of Supply |
|
|
|
|
| Surface Water |
293,454 |
416,212 |
293,095 |
415,213 |
| Ground Water |
7,147 |
9,710 |
7,168 |
9,677 |
| Total Demand |
300,601 |
425,923 |
300,263 |
424,889 |
|
Exhibit 7.
Current and Projected Annual Bear River Water Demand
Mid Case Scenario,
Annual Consumptive Use in Acre Feet per Year
|
Current Demands |
20303 Middle Scenario Demands |
|
Normal
Demand Year |
High
Demand Year |
Normal
Demand Year |
High
Demand Year |
|
| Demand by Type of Use |
| Agriculture |
|
|
|
|
| Irrigation |
94,528 |
136,251 |
93,877 |
135,312 |
| Livestock |
528 |
528 |
543 |
543 |
| Agricultural Subdtotal |
95,056 |
136,779 |
94,420 |
135,855 |
| Municipal |
|
|
|
|
| Evanston |
|
|
|
|
| Residential |
1,262 |
1,468 |
1,858 |
2,160 |
| Commercial |
387 |
455 |
577 |
679 |
| Institutional |
655 |
976 |
964 |
1,436 |
| Subtotal |
2,304 |
2,899 |
3,399 |
4,276 |
| Cokeville |
505 |
507 |
431 |
433 |
| Municipal Subtotal |
2,809 |
3,406 |
3,830 |
4,709 |
| Rural Domestic |
500 |
500 |
709 |
709 |
| Industrial |
459 |
680 |
222 |
329 |
| Total Demand |
98,825 |
141,365 |
99,181 |
141,602 |
| Demand by Source of Supply |
|
|
|
|
| Surface Water |
95,829 |
137,460 |
96,115 |
137,670 |
| Ground Water |
2,996 |
3,906 |
3,066 |
3,932 |
| Total Demand |
98,825 |
141,365 |
99,181 |
141,602 |
|
Projected Monthly Demands by Scenario
Current and projected monthly water demands (both diversions and consumptive use) have been
prepared for the Basin under each of three separate scenarios: high, medium and low water use.
Monthly water demands are derived by multiplying the current and projected annual water
demands for each sector by observed monthly shares of annual water over the historical period.
Total water diversions and consumptive use are presented and discussed for each sector through
three tables, one for each scenario.
An analysis of the temporal distribution of water demands throughout the year illustrates the
seasonal nature of water demand within the Basin. Almost all sectors exhibit a significant
difference in demand between the peak summer months and the off-peak winter months. Such
distinct seasonal patterns in water demand are characteristic of economies for areas with colder
climates similar to the Basin. One simplifying assumption made is that the temporal distribution
of diversions and consumptive use throughout the year are identical.
The distribution of irrigation water demand was calculated for both surface water and ground
water by division within the Basin by taking an average of historical data obtained by the study
team. As expected, positive demand for both surface and ground water used in irrigation occurs
only from April through October. Of interest is the fact that while the pulse in irrigation surface
water demand occurs in the summer months (87 percent of total demand occurs in June-August),
the pulse in ground water demand occurs earlier (75percent of total demand occurs in May and
June). Livestock water demand is assumed to be twice as high during the months of April
through September to reflect the presence of the spring calf crop during those months.
Residential and commercial water demand in Evanston was based on the average water use
observed by sector in 1995-96 (Evanston Master Plan Study, Sunrise Engineering Inc.). Both
sectoral distributions exhibit a baseline demand of about 5 percent per month for the months of
October through May, and 60 percent of total water demand in these sectors occurs during the
months of June through September. Institutional water demand in Evanston was based on the
average water use observed by sector in 1995-96 (Large Users Summary, Evanston Master Plan
Study, Sunrise Engineering Inc.). Water demand in this sector is even more seasonal, with a
baseline demand of 3 percent during the months of October through May. The remaining 76
percent of annual demand occurs from June through September.
The distribution of the remaining sectors was based on anecdotal evidence, as no summary
information was available. Water demand in Cokeville is assumed to follow the same temporal
distribution as the Evanston residential sector. Rural domestic water use is assumed to be flat
throughout the year since rural residential demand is less likely to have seasonal influences such
as summer irrigation of lawn acreage. Industrial water demand is assumed to be constant
throughout the year (DeBerry, Robinson).
High Scenario
The aggregate temporal distribution of water demand in the Basin under the high scenario is
presented in Exhibit 8 below. It is possible to divide the months into three categories of water
use: the baseline or off-peak months of October through April; the peak months of June and July;
and the shoulder months of May and August and September.
Exhibit 8.
Current and Projected Monthly Bear River Basin Water Demand
High Case Scenario,
Estimated Diversions and Consumptive Use in Acre Feet
|
Current Demands |
2030 High Scenario Demands |
|
Normal Year |
High Demand Year |
Normal Year |
High Demand Year |
|
Diversions |
Cons. Use |
Diversions |
Cons. Use |
Diversions |
Cons. Use |
Diversions |
Cons. Use |
|
| Total Demand by Month |
| Januray |
292 |
225 |
331 |
265 |
495 |
367 |
557 |
429 |
| February |
282 |
219 |
319 |
257 |
477 |
355 |
535 |
415 |
| March |
290 |
224 |
329 |
263 |
491 |
364 |
552 |
426 |
| April |
1,071 |
539 |
1,769 |
934 |
1,312 |
695 |
2,069 |
1,133 |
| May |
25,596 |
8,783 |
39,090 |
14,466 |
27,327 |
9,463 |
41,629 |
15,506 |
| June |
94,995 |
30,690 |
134,509 |
43,825 |
100,957 |
32,777 |
142,807 |
46,735 |
| July |
109,125 |
35,082 |
153,148 |
49,183 |
116,076 |
37,530 |
162,733 |
52,550 |
| August |
53,761 |
17,497 |
75,311 |
24,465 |
57,639 |
18,999 |
80,549 |
26,493 |
| September |
13,251 |
4,527 |
18,630 |
6,394 |
14,554 |
5,133 |
20,325 |
7,192 |
| October |
1,377 |
605 |
1,851 |
804 |
1,737 |
825 |
2,278 |
1,076 |
| November |
282 |
218 |
321 |
255 |
472 |
351 |
531 |
409 |
| December |
277 |
216 |
315 |
254 |
468 |
350 |
526 |
408 |
| Total Annual Demand |
300,601 |
98,825 |
425,923 |
141,365 |
322,005 |
107,209 |
455,091 |
152,772 |
|
The distribution of percentage increases over the 2000-2030 projection period is exactly inverted,
with the largest percentage increases coming the baseline months (roughly 67 percent) and the
smallest percentage increases coming during the peak months (roughly 6 percent). This result
stems from the fact that water demand in the baseline months is based on municipal demand (the
fastest growing sector) while water demand in the peak months is based on agricultural demand
(the slowest growing sector).
Low Scenario
The aggregate temporal distribution of water demand in the Basin under the low scenario is
presented in Exhibit 9 below.
Exhibit 9.
Current and Projected Monthly Bear River Basin Water Demand
Low Case Scenario,
Estimated Diversions and Consumptive Use in Acre Feet
|
Current Demands |
2030 Low Scenario Demands |
|
Normal Year |
High Demand Year |
Normal Year |
High Demand Year |
|
Diversions |
Cons. Use |
Diversions |
Cons. Use |
Diversions |
Cons. Use |
Diversions |
Cons. Use |
|
| Total Demand by Month |
| Januray |
292 |
225 |
331 |
265 |
1,522 |
586 |
2,054 |
767 |
| February |
282 |
219 |
319 |
257 |
1,512 |
579 |
2,043 |
759 |
| March |
290 |
224 |
329 |
263 |
1,520 |
584 |
2,051 |
765 |
| April |
1,071 |
539 |
1,769 |
934 |
2,254 |
880 |
3,405 |
1,396 |
| May |
25,596 |
8,783 |
39,090 |
14,466 |
25,324 |
8,636 |
38,512 |
14,126 |
| June |
94,995 |
30,690 |
134,509 |
43,825 |
90,604 |
29,244 |
128,267 |
41,745 |
| July |
109,125 |
35,082 |
153,148 |
49,183 |
103,906 |
33,381 |
145,812 |
46,795 |
| August |
53,761 |
17,497 |
75,311 |
24,465 |
51,839 |
16,844 |
72,611 |
23,550 |
| September |
13,251 |
4,527 |
18,630 |
6,394 |
13,728 |
4,641 |
19,287 |
6,546 |
| October |
1,377 |
605 |
1,851 |
804 |
2,549 |
946 |
3,491 |
1,279 |
| November |
282 |
218 |
321 |
255 |
1,512 |
578 |
2,044 |
758 |
| December |
277 |
216 |
315 |
254 |
1,508 |
577 |
2,038 |
756 |
| Total Annual Demand |
300,601 |
98,825 |
425,923 |
141,365 |
297,779 |
97,475 |
421,614 |
139,242 |
|
Under the low scenario, water demand for the Basin declines during all months of the year.
Similar to the high scenario, the baseline months exhibit the largest percentage changes (roughly
17 percent) and the peak months exhibit the smallest percentage changes (roughly 6 percent).
The absolute magnitude of these changes is, however, much smaller under the low scenario than
under the high scenario. Clearly, both the relative stability and the overall dominance of the
agricultural sector in terms of water demand controls the patterns of change under the two
economic base scenarios.
Medium Scenario
The aggregate temporal distribution of water demand in the Basin under the medium scenario is
presented in Exhibit 10 below. As with the annual demands, monthly totals for each sector were
interpolated between the two economic base scenarios based on the relative relationship of the
population projections under the three scenarios.
Exhibit 10.
Current and Projected Monthly Bear River Basin Water Demand
Mid Case Scenario,
Estimated Diversions and Consumptive Use in Acre Feet
|
Current Demands |
2030 High Scenario Demands |
|
Normal Year |
High Demand Year |
Normal Year |
High Demand Year |
|
Diversions |
Cons. Use |
Diversions |
Cons. Use |
Diversions |
Cons. Use |
Diversions |
Cons. Use |
|
| Total Demand by Month |
| Januray |
292 |
225 |
331 |
265 |
359 |
264 |
398 |
304 |
| February |
282 |
219 |
319 |
257 |
345 |
265 |
382 |
293 |
| March |
290 |
224 |
329 |
263 |
356 |
262 |
394 |
302 |
| April |
1,071 |
539 |
1,769 |
934 |
1,129 |
574 |
1,821 |
976 |
| May |
25,596 |
8,783 |
39,090 |
14,466 |
25,524 |
8,785 |
38,932 |
14,436 |
| June |
94,995 |
30,690 |
134,509 |
43,825 |
94,561 |
30,611 |
133,827 |
43,680 |
| July |
109,125 |
35,082 |
153,148 |
49,183 |
108,681 |
35,025 |
152,444 |
49,074 |
| August |
53,761 |
17,497 |
75,311 |
24,465 |
53,748 |
17,591 |
75,201 |
24,564 |
| September |
13,251 |
4,527 |
18,630 |
6,394 |
13,398 |
4,639 |
18,772 |
6,526 |
| October |
1,377 |
605 |
1,851 |
804 |
1,482 |
669 |
1,963 |
877 |
| November |
282 |
218 |
321 |
255 |
343 |
253 |
381 |
290 |
| December |
277 |
216 |
315 |
254 |
338 |
252 |
375 |
289 |
| Total Annual Demand |
300,601 |
98,825 |
425,923 |
141,365 |
300,263 |
99,181 |
424,889 |
141,602 |
|
The temporal distribution of water demand under the medium scenario is almost identical to
current use. This is not surprising since overall diversions are projected to decline by less than
400 acre-feet over the 30-year time horizon. As can be seen in Exhibit 10, slight increases are
projected for the baseline months (driven by municipal demand) while slight decreases are
projected for the peak months (driven by agricultural demand).
Comparison of Projected Demand Growth with Available Supplies by Division
One of the purposes of developing water demand forecasts in a Basin planning study is to
compare maximum projected demand, the High Scenario during a dry or high demand year with
potential available water supplies to help determine the need for new water storage projects. To
facilitate these comparisons, the study team estimated the level of monthly water demand growth
(measured as the difference between 2030 conditions and current conditions) that would occur in
both the Upper and Central Divisions of the Basin. For purposes of this comparison, only surface
supplied demands were included as relevant when considering potential future storage projects.
Monthly projections of the growth in future demands, for both the Upper and Central Division,
were developed for two sets of water demand conditions. “Normal” year projections are
projections of growth by the year 2030 under the average water demand conditions described
previously for each sector in this memorandum. “Dry” year projections are projections by the
year 2030 assuming high water demand conditions, also described previously for each water use
sector. Available monthly surface supplies were calculated by the study team, and are presented
in the Task 3.D technical memorandum for “normal”, “dry” and “wet” year climate conditions.
These totals represent the amount of available surface water that is currently uncommitted to
specific uses.
The geographic allocation of future monthly water demands reflects the following assumptions:
- Agriculture (irrigation and livestock use) demands were allocated based on the
current geographic distribution of this type of water demand throughout the Bear
River Basin.
- The "Other" category includes two types of demand -- surface supplied municipal
demands and industrial demands. City of Evanston demands were included in the
Upper Division. City of Cokeville demands were excluded from this analysis,
since Cokeville is supplied with groundwater. For purposes of this analysis,
Upper Division industrial demands include the surface water supplied to the
Chevron gas processing facility. No additional surface supplied industrial
demands were projected for the Central Division, since new industrial operations
in that region are likely to be supplied with groundwater.
Exhibit 11 depicts the projected monthly growth in surface water supplied, monthly water
demands, by division, under normal year conditions. It also shows the monthly, uncommitted
surface water supply as well as the estimated surplus/shortage that is the difference of these two
totals.
Exhibit 11.
Projected Acre-Foot Increases in Bear River Basin Surface Water Diversions
Needed Versus Available Supply
Under Normal Year Conditions
Upper Division
|
Projected Demand Growth by Month |
Available |
Surplus/ |
|
Agriculture |
Other |
Total |
Surface Supply |
(Shortage) |
|
| Jan |
2 |
156 |
158 |
4,745 |
4,587 |
| Feb |
2 |
150 |
152 |
4,836 |
4,684 |
| Mar |
2 |
152 |
155 |
11,520 |
11,365 |
| Apr |
38 |
145 |
183 |
18,627 |
18,444 |
| May |
813 |
237 |
1,050 |
19,049 |
17,999 |
| Jun |
2,725 |
491 |
3,217 |
66,197 |
62,980 |
| Jul |
3,210 |
698 |
3,908 |
97 |
(3,811) |
| Aug |
1,457 |
803 |
2,260 |
0 |
(2,260) |
| Sep |
405 |
551 |
956 |
0 |
(956) |
| Oct |
42 |
269 |
311 |
6,162 |
5,851 |
| Nov |
2 |
141 |
143 |
5,932 |
5,789 |
| Dec |
2 |
143 |
145 |
5,260 |
5,115 |
| Total |
8,702 |
3,936 |
12,637 |
142,425 |
129,788 |
|
Central Division
|
Projected Demand Growth by Month |
Available |
Surplus/ |
|
Agriculture |
Other |
Total |
Surface Supply |
(Shortage) |
|
| Jan |
2 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
(2) |
| Feb |
2 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
(2) |
| Mar |
2 |
0 |
2 |
6,939 |
6,937 |
| Apr |
10 |
0 |
10 |
34,769 |
34,759 |
| May |
610 |
0 |
610 |
53,300 |
52,690 |
| Jun |
2,804 |
0 |
2,804 |
69,232 |
66,428 |
| Jul |
3,008 |
0 |
3,008 |
23,551 |
20,543 |
| Aug |
1,575 |
0 |
1,575 |
0 |
(1,575) |
| Sep |
319 |
0 |
319 |
0 |
(319) |
| Oct |
22 |
0 |
22 |
0 |
(22) |
| Nov |
3 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
(3) |
| Dec |
2 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
(2) |
| Total |
8,359 |
0 |
8,359 |
187,791 |
179,432 |
|
During a normal year, while the growth in demands are dominated by the agricultural sector in
both the Upper and Central Divisions, growth in demand for non-agricultural purposes will be an
important factor only in the Upper Division. During the summer growing season agricultural
demands constitute between 64 and 84 percent of total demand growth in the Upper Division. In
the Central Division, agricultural demand growth constitutes 100 percent of the total increase in
monthly demands through 2030. This difference is due mainly to the growth in municipal water
demand projected for the Evanston area over the next 30 years. Thus, while agricultural demands
follow roughly the same monthly distribution in both divisions, the monthly distribution of total
demand growth between the divisions varies due to the influence of the non-agricultural sector.
The monthly distribution of available, uncommitted surface water supplies for a normal year is
similar for both the Upper and Central Division. Available supplies begin building with the
spring runoff and peak in the month of June. In each division, available supplies stabilize
throughout the fall and winter seasons. The main difference is that, while in the Upper Division,
some surface water supplies remain available in all months of the year with the exception of the
three-month peak irrigation period (July-September), in the Central Division, supplies are
available only during the spring runoff period.
The last column of Exhibit 11 shows the difference in the growth of demands and the
uncommitted surface water supplies on a monthly basis under normal conditions. In the Upper
Division, shortages are projected to only occur during the peak irrigation periods. During the
remaining months, uncommitted surface supplies are more than adequate to meet the projected
growth in demand. In the Central Division, while monthly shortages are projected to occur from
August through February, with the exception of August, none are really significant. From March
through July, the study team projects that more than enough surface water will be available to
meet the projected growth in demand.
Exhibit 12 depicts projected increases in surface supplied monthly water demands, by division,
under dry year conditions. These demands were calculated assuming high water demand
conditions. Although it could be considered the “worst case,” this scenario is reasonable to
explore, as historical data indicate a high correlation between high water demand and dry year
climate conditions. Dry conditions were evident as often as three years out of a decade
historically (Wilson and Kemp, 2000).
Exhibit 12.
Projected Acre Foot Increases in Bear River Basin Surface Water
Diversions Needed Versus Available Supply
Under Dry Year Conditions
Upper Division
|
Projected Demand Growth by Month |
Available |
Surplus/ |
|
Agriculture |
Other |
Total |
Surface Supply |
(Shortage) |
|
| Jan |
2 |
180 |
183 |
1,972 |
1,789 |
| Feb |
2 |
173 |
176 |
1,665 |
1,489 |
| Mar |
2 |
176 |
178 |
3,744 |
3,566 |
| Apr |
51 |
168 |
219 |
3,934 |
3,715 |
| May |
1,128 |
274 |
1,403 |
0 |
(1,403) |
| Jun |
3,789 |
568 |
4,356 |
9,524 |
5,168 |
| Jul |
4,463 |
806 |
5,269 |
0 |
(5,269) |
| Aug |
2,025 |
927 |
2,952 |
0 |
(2,952) |
| Sep |
561 |
636 |
1,197 |
0 |
(1,197) |
| Oct |
58 |
311 |
369 |
1,735 |
1,366 |
| Nov |
2 |
163 |
165 |
2,255 |
2,090 |
| Dec |
2 |
165 |
168 |
1,959 |
1,791 |
| Total |
12,088 |
4,547 |
16,635 |
26,788 |
10,153 |
|
Central Division
|
Projected Demand Growth by Month |
Available |
Surplus/ |
|
Agriculture |
Other |
Total |
Surface Supply |
(Shortage) |
|
| Jan |
2 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
(2) |
| Feb |
2 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
(2) |
| Mar |
2 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
(2) |
| Apr |
12 |
0 |
12 |
0 |
(12) |
| May |
847 |
0 |
847 |
0 |
(847) |
| Jun |
3,899 |
0 |
3,899 |
0 |
(3,899) |
| Jul |
4,183 |
0 |
4,183 |
0 |
(4,183) |
| Aug |
2,189 |
0 |
2,189 |
0 |
(2,189) |
| Sep |
441 |
0 |
441 |
0 |
(441) |
| Oct |
30 |
0 |
30 |
0 |
(30) |
| Nov |
3 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
(3) |
| Dec |
2 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
(2) |
| Total |
11,612 |
0 |
11,612 |
0 |
(11,612) |
|
The distribution of demand growth depicted in Exhibit 12 has many of the same characteristics as
that shown in Exhibit 11. The main difference is that in a dry year, the growth in demand for the
agricultural sector increases to a much greater extent than in the non-agricultural sector. Demand
growth in a dry year for the agricultural sector in both the Upper and Central Divisions increased
by 40 percent over what they were in a normal year. In contrast, the Upper Division non-
agricultural growth in demand increased by only 16 percent. Overall demand growth in dry years
is approximately 35 percent greater than under normal year climate and hydrologic conditions.
Annual uncommitted surface supplies declined dramatically in both divisions for dry year
conditions versus normal year conditions. For the Upper Division, annual available supplies
shrank to 19 percent of what they were under normal conditions. The largest monthly percentage
declines comes during the months of May through September, when agricultural usage is at its
highest. During this period, available supplies go to zero for all months except June, which
declines to 14 percent of what was available in a normal year. For the Central Division, available
supplies during dry year conditions go to zero during all months of the year. This result is
expected, given that the months of August through February were already at zero during a normal
year, and the remaining months reflect the spring runoff accumulation.
The significant decline in available surface water supplies has important consequences for the
monthly surplus/shortage totals projected for each division. Whereas under normal year
conditions both the Upper and Central Divisions experienced very few months with significant
projected shortages, under dry year conditions, both divisions experience significant projected
shortages during the summer irrigation season. It should be noted that sequential dry years would
aggravate these shortages considerably.
Summary
This memorandum has presented the water demand projections developed for the Bear River
Basin under three alternative scenarios. The methodology used to derive the quantitative
relationships (water use factors) for each water use sector is outlined and discussed. These water
use factors, together with projected demographic and economic information, are applied to
develop annual water use projections by sector under three alternative scenarios. Historically,
observed temporal distributions of annual totals for each sector allowed the study team to derive
monthly aggregate water use projections for each scenario.
The largest projected changes in water demand occur in the municipal sector. Total water
demand in this sector remains small relative to water demand in the agricultural sector. While the
agricultural sector experiences the smallest percentage change over the projection period, the
sector’s relative magnitude allows it to drive the water use patterns exhibited in both the annual
and monthly water demand projections. Although industrial water demand is completely
eliminated under the low scenario, the sector’s diminutive size implies minimal overall impact on
water demand in the Basin.
High Scenario projected growth in water demand under both normal and dry year conditions are
compared to potential uncommitted surface water supplies under both sets of conditions. The
comparison of the growth in water demand to uncommitted supplies for both the Upper and
Central Divisions, demonstrates that under both normal and dry year conditions, agricultural
demands during the irrigation season are the most at risk of exceeding available supplies. Indeed,
under dry year conditions, both divisions are projected to experience substantial shortages during
the summer season.
References
Department of Public Works, City of Evanston, May 2000.
Evanston Master Plan, Large Users Summary, Appendix C, Sunrise Engineering Inc.,
November 1997.
Evanston Master Plan, Section 2, Sunrise Engineering Inc., November 1997.
Wilson, Erin, Historic Irrigation Water Estimates, Leonard Rice Consulting Engineers,
August 2000.
Personal Interviews/Written Communications
Burrough, Les, former Agricultural Extension Specialist, Uinta County, July 2000.
DeBerry, Michael K., Wyoming Asset Manager, Chevron USA Production Company,
May 2000.
Grandy, DeMont, Natural Resource Conservation Service, Cokeville Field Office, June
2000.
Grasmick, Tammy, Program Technician in Charge, Farm Service Agency, Uinta County
Field Office, June 2000.
Kemp, Clarence, Forsgren Associates, August 2000.
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