Wyoming State Water Plan, Wyoming Water Development Office
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Bear River Basin Water Plan
Technical Memoranda

SUBJECT: Appendix Q
Historic and Current Econonomic and Demographic Conditions

PREPARED BY: Edward Harvey and Doug Jeavons, BBC Consulting

DATE: October 6, 2000


Introduction

This memorandum provides the starting point for development of Bear River Basin (Basin) water demand projections by describing:

Information summarized in the memorandum was gathered from publicly available secondary sources and from personal and telephone interviews conducted by BBC Research & Consulting (BBC) from May through August 2000. References are listed at the end of this memorandum. Subsequent memoranda related to water demand forecasting describe the three alternative planning scenarios and the overall economic and demographic projections for the Basin in year 2030 (Memo 2), the water demand projections for year 2030 (Memo 3) and future recreational demands (Memo 4).

Demographic Overview

At present, a total of nearly 15,000 people reside in the Wyoming portions of the Basin. More than 80 percent of the population of the Basin lives within the boundaries of the City of Evanston or the Town of Cokeville, the two principal population centers within the Basin. The Basin includes nearly 70 percent of the total population of Uinta County, but only about seven percent of the total population of Lincoln County. A breakdown of the current population of the Basin is provided in Exhibit 1.

The Basin population estimates reflect year 2000 population projections for Evanston and Cokeville produced by the Wyoming Department of Administration and Information, Division of Economic Analysis. Population in unincorporated portions of the Basin was estimated using estimated 1999 population totals for census tracts within the Basin produced by PCensus (AGH, Inc., 2000).

Historic population growth. Changes in census tract definitions from decade to decade and the imprecise relationship of census-defined geography to the watershed make it difficult, if not impossible, to precisely quantify historic population totals for the unincorporated portions of the Basin. However, population changes in the two principal communities that comprise most of the Basin's population can be readily tracked over time from the decennial censuses.

Since 1960, the combined population of Evanston and Cokeville has increased at an average annual rate of about four percent. This long-term average, however, masks considerable fluctuation during this 40-year period. As shown in Exhibit 2, the population of the two communities actually declined during the 1960s, but grew rapidly during the decades of the 1970s and 1980s. The 1990s have been characterized by comparatively slow, but steady, growth, with the combined population of Evanston and Cokeville increasing at an average annual rate of less than one percent over the past ten years. In general, the rates of population growth in Evanston and Cokeville closely correspond to the rates of population growth for Uinta and Lincoln Counties as a whole over the past four decades.

Exhibit 2.
Population of Evanston and Cokeville, Wyoming and the
Remainder of Lincoln and Uinta Counties, 1960 to 2000


Source: Colorado Economic and Demographic Informations Service; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census.

Since 1971, the combined population of Uinta and Lincoln Counties has generally increased by between 100 and 500 residents per year due to resident births exceeding resident deaths, termed "net natural increase", according to State of Wyoming, Department of Health data. However, population changes in Uinta and Lincoln Counties have historically been driven primarily by migration to or from the area, presumably in response to changing economic opportunities. Exhibit 3 portrays annual net migration and total annual changes in population for the combined county area from 1971 through 1998. The annual population changes for each county were calculated from annual population estimates reported in the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System (BEA-REIS).

Exhibit 3.
Components of Population Change, 1971 to 1998,
Lincoln and Uinta Counties


Note: Area between lines represents natural population increase, annual
difference between birth total and death total for Lincoln and Uinta Counties.
Source: State of Wyoming, Department of Health.

Labor force participation and unemployment. A high proportion of Basin residents over the age of 16 are currently active in the labor force. County level figures based on labor force estimates published by the Wyoming Department of Employment and estimates of the population aged 16 or older from PCensus (AGH, Inc., 2000) indicate that about 83 percent of Uinta County residents over the age of 16 are either employed or actively seeking work, compared to the state average labor force participation rate of about 74 percent. The participation rate in Lincoln County is lower than the state average, at 70 percent, but still well above the national average labor force participation rate of about 67 percent.

The most recent average annual unemployment rates published by the Wyoming Department of Employment, for 1999, were 6.9 percent in Uinta County and 6.2 percent in Lincoln County. As has generally been the case since the mid-1980s, these unemployment rates were higher than the 4.9 percent state average for the same period.

Economic Overview

Based upon extrapolation of 1998 data from BEA-REIS to the year 2000, the study team estimates that there are currently about 20,000 full and part-time jobs located in Uinta and Lincoln Counties. The study team estimates that approximately 10,000 of these jobs are located within the Basin portions of the two counties, with approximately 9,500 jobs located in the Uinta County part of the Basin (principally in and around Evanston) and about 500 jobs located in the Lincoln County portion.

Historic employment growth. Exhibit 4 depicts historical employment growth for Uinta and Lincoln counties (graphed against the left axis) and the State of Wyoming (graphed against the right axis) from 1969 through 1997. Uinta County employment grew rapidly from the late 1970s through the mid-1980s during the period of intense oil and gas development activity, now known locally as "The Boom." After experiencing a slight decline in total employment during the late 1980s, Uinta County jobs have grown steadily at about the same rate as the State as a whole during the 1990s. In general, Lincoln County employment growth during the past three decades has been slower than either Uinta County or the State as a whole. An exception was the brief period of power plant construction during the mid-1980s; county employment fell back shortly thereafter to levels comparable to the pre-construction period.

Exhibit 4.
Composition of Total Employment Growth: Lincoln
and Uinta Counties and the State of Wyoming, 1969-1997


Source: Colorado Economic and Demographic Information Service;
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

Employment and Earnings by Sector. Exhibit 5, based upon BEA-REIS data for 1998, depicts the shares of total employment in Lincoln County, Uinta County, the State of Wyoming and the U.S. for each major industry division. As indicated in the exhibit, the three largest employment sectors in both Basin counties (as well as in the Wyoming as a whole and the U.S.) are services, retail trade and government.

Exhibit 5.
Composition of 1998 Employment by Sector


Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System.

Comparing shares of county employment (and employee earnings) to state and, especially, to national averages can be useful in indicating the categories of economic activities that bring money into the local economy. Such categories comprise the economic base of the local economy.

As shown in Exhibit 5, both Basin counties (and the State of Wyoming as a whole) have disproportionately large shares of employment in the mining sector compared to the national average. In the case of Uinta County, these jobs are predominantly related to oil and gas production. In Lincoln County, many of these jobs are located at the coal mine near Kemmerer, which is outside the Basin. Both counties also have relatively large construction sectors — related both to the importance of road construction and maintenance as an economic activity in many parts of Wyoming and to the local energy sectors which also support numerous construction jobs. Agricultural employment in the Basin counties, and particularly in Lincoln County, is relatively large compared to the national average. There are also a relatively large number of government sector jobs in the Basin counties, and the State as a whole, reflecting, in part, the large amount of federal lands that are administered in each area. Finally, while the share of employment in retail trade in the Basin counties is only a little higher than the national average, it is relatively large for economies the size of Lincoln and Uinta counties. This is an indicator of the importance of tourism and visitor dollars in the local economic base.

Exhibit 6, also based on BEA-REIS data for 1998, depicts the relative proportion that each major industry division contributes to total earnings in Lincoln County, Uinta County, the State of Wyoming and the U.S. This graphic further emphasizes the importance of the mining sector (e.g., oil and gas in Uinta County and coal, oil and gas in Lincoln County), the construction sector and the government sector in the economic base of the Bear River counties. Transportation and public utilities accounts for a comparatively large share of Lincoln County earnings due to operations of the power plant near Kemmerer — which is outside of the Basin.

Exhibit 6.
Composition of 1998 Earnings by Sector


Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System.

Key Economic and Water Use Sectors

The remainder of this memorandum describes current conditions in four key sectors in the Basin. Agriculture, while no longer one of the largest sources of employment or income in the Basin, still accounts for the largest amount of water use. Energy related activities are a key part of the local economic base and account for virtually all of the industrial water use in the Basin. Tourism and visitor related activities are an important component of the local economic base, especially in the Uinta County portion of the Basin. Finally, manufacturing and other businesses that export products or services from the Basin are a relatively small, but growing component of the economic base that may be increasingly important to the Basin economies in the future.

Prospects for these sectors, and specific scenarios incorporating varying assumptions about each sector, provide the cornerstone to the economic, demographic and water demand projections for the Basin. These elements are discussed in the two subsequent technical memoranda for the Basin water demand projections.

Agriculture. In order to understand current agricultural activity in the Basin and the factors affecting local agriculture in the future, BBC interviewed representatives of the local ranching community as well as relevant personnel from a variety of federal and state agencies that are involved with Wyoming agriculture. BBC also gathered and analyzed current and historic livestock and hay production data for the Basin counties published by Wyoming Agricultural Statistics Service. In addition, BBC obtained information on current and historic stocking levels for livestock grazing allotments within the Basin from the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The following is an abbreviated summary of current agricultural conditions in the Basin.

Energy. In order to understand current energy related activities in the Basin and the factors affecting these activities, BBC interviewed representatives of the two major operators in the area, Chevron and BP Amoco. BBC also gathered and analyzed current and historic oil and gas production data for the Basin counties, the State of Wyoming and the U.S. as a whole published by the Wyoming Oil and Gas Conservation Commission and the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. The following is an abbreviated summary of current energy related conditions in the Basin.

Tourism and Visitor Related Activity. In order to gain local insight into tourism and visitor related activity in the Basin, BBC interviewed representatives of the Evanston Chamber of Commerce, the City of Evanston Economic Development Director and Community Development Director and the Uinta County Development Coordinator. Given the lack of available estimates of the magnitude of this activity, BBC developed estimates of the current number of visitor nights in the area, average annual expenditures by overnight visitors and pass-through visitors to the area and corresponding estimates of visitor related employment in the area. Primary data used in developing these estimates included monthly net sales tax distributions by minor business class, published by the Wyoming Department of Revenue. Secondary data sources included results from a study on the economic impact of the travel industry in Wyoming, conducted Morey and Associates in conjunction with the University of Wyoming.

The following is a summary of current tourism and visitor related activity in the Basin.

Table 1.
Number of Visitors, Visitor Expenditures and Jobs Supported by Tourism
Evanston, Wyoming, 1999

Table 2 below depicts the current share of total visitor expenditures by expenditure category. Throughout the year, tourist/visitors are estimated to account for 100 percent of total lodging expenditures. During the peak months, tourist/visitors account for 41 percent of total restaurant expenditures and 64 percent of total gasoline expenditures in the Evanston area. During the off-peak months, these restaurant and gasoline totals drop to 29 percent and 39 percent, respectively.

Table 2.
Current Share of Total Visitor Expenditures by Expenditure Category
Evanston, Wyoming

Manufacturing and other industry. Apart from activities related to agriculture, energy production and tourism, the economic base of the Basin includes other firms that export goods or services outside of the region and bring money into the area. This aspect of the Basin's economic base is perhaps the hardest to characterize and quantify, but given the changing nature of the economy it may be among the most important over the next 30 years. The following insights are based upon interviews with community leaders in Evanston, Cokeville, Uinta County and Lincoln County and the Wyoming Business Council.

Summary

At present, there are approximately 15,000 residents living in the Wyoming portions of the Basin. The Basin population grew rapidly from about 1970 through the middle 1980s, suffered a modest decline in the late 1980s and has grown slowly, but steadily, during the 1990s. About 10,000 jobs are located within the Basin. Most of these jobs are held by Basin residents, although some residents commute to work outside of the Basin and other jobs in the Basin are filled by residents of nearby counties. Key components of the Basin's economic base include energy related activity, tourism and visitor related activity and a small, but growing, manufacturing and commercial sector that exports goods and services outside the region. Agriculture is not as large a factor in the local economy as it was in the past, but remains a very important sector from the standpoint of Basin water use. Energy is a mature industry. Tourism and visitor related activities and the manufacturing sector are vibrant elements of the Basin economy.

References

Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc. PCensus data product, 2000.

Cokeville Meadows National Wildlife Refuge Proposal, Final Environmental Impact Statement, June 1992.

Proposed Cokeville Meadows National Wildlife Refuge, Draft Environmental Impact Statement, October 1990.

Cumberland/Uinta Allotment Cooperative Management Plan, Bureau of Land Management, Wyoming State Office, January 2000.

Interview with Ken Klinker, Uinta County Development Coordinator, May 2000.

Interview with Paul Knopf, City of Evanston Community Development Director, May 2000.

Interview with Eugene Joyce, City of Evanston Economic Development Director, May 2000.

Interview with Gurn Brown, University of Wyoming, Lincoln County Cooperative Extension, May 2000.

Interview with Michael K. DeBerry, Wyoming Asset Manager, Chevron USA Production Company, May 2000.

Interview with Brian Honey, City of Evanston, City Engineer, May 2000.

Interview with Stan Thompson, Cokeville City Council, May 2000.

Interview with Len Wooley, Wyoming Business Council, Regional Director -- Southeast Region, July 2000.

Kemmerer Resource Management Plan, Kemmerer Resource Area, Rock Springs District, Bureau of Land Management, April 1986.

Map of Irrigated Lands, Basin, Wyoming, Leonard Rice Consulting Water Engineers Inc./ Forsgren Associates, Inc., June, 2000.

National Agricultural Statistics Service, Published Online Estimates Database, www.nass.usda.gov:81/ipedb/.

Smithsfork Allotment Draft Interim Management Plan, Bureau of Land Management, April 2000.

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Census of Agriculture, 1997.

U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census, 1990 Census of Population and Housing.

U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System, 1999.

U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, historic state, regional and national natural gas and petroleum production statistics, 2000.

U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook, projected energy demand by source of supply and producing region, 2000.

Wyoming Agricultural Statistics, 1999, Wyoming Agricultural Statistics Service.

Wyoming Department of Administration and Information, Division of Economic Analysis, 2000 municipal population projections, 2000.

Wyoming Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Natural Gas and Petroleum Production Statistics by County, various years.

Wyoming Department of Health, Vital Statistics, various years.

Personal Interviews/Written Communications, Completed in year 2000

Birge, Dave, Wyoming Department of Transportation.

Elliot, Shawn, Mountain Land Association of Governments.

Festin, Scott, Wasatch Front Regional Council of Governments.

Hyde, Jamie, Utah Governor's Office of Planning and Budget.

Joyce, Eugene, Economic Development Director, City of Evanston.

Knopf, Paul, Community Development Director, City of Evanston.

Madia, Mark, Executive Director, Evanston Chamber of Commerce.

Marsh, Susan, Recreation Specialist, USFS, Bridger-Teton National Forest.

Noble, Dan, Administrator, Wyoming Department of Revenue.

Data Sources

Bureau of Economic Analysis, Full and Part-Time Employment by Industry, Uinta County, Wyoming. Published on the web at URL: www.bea.doc.gov/regional/reis/ca25/ca25_56041.htm.

County Population Projections for the Wasatch Front Region, Utah Governor's Office of Planning and Budget. Published on the web at URL: www.governor.state.ut.us/dea.

Report on the Economic Impact of the Travel Industry in Wyoming, 1999, Morey and Associates/ Department of Economics, University of Wyoming.

Uinta County IMPLAN coefficients. (cite?)

Wyoming Department of Revenue, Monthly Net Sales Tax Distributions by County for FY-99 and FY-00, Excise Tax Division, Published on the web at URL: revenue.state.wy.us/exciseframe.htm.

Wyoming Department of Transportation, Monthly Summary, Automatic Traffic Recorder, Evanston East Station, January 1999 through December 1999.